Melbourne Victory
08:40
Melbourne City
Sat 24 Oct, 08:40
AAMI Park
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
40%
Bookmakers 38%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
34%
Bookmakers 36%
Us 40%Bookmakers 38%
Edge +2.3 pts
Uncertainty ±2.8%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 40% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.3% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 40% against a market price of 38% (+2.3%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsMelbourne Victory
LWDLW
- 18 Oct · A v Wellington Phoenix 1–2
- 14 Oct · H v FC Seoul 3–0 (xG 1.43–0.85)
- 16 Sep · A v Viettel 1–1
- 2 May · H v Sydney 0–1 (xG 1.28–0.75)
- 25 Apr · A v Western Sydney Wanderers 2–0 (xG 1.52–1.40)
Melbourne City
LDLWW
- 17 Oct · A v Auckland 1–3
- 2 May · A v Auckland 1–1 (xG 1.55–1.19)
- 26 Apr · H v Adelaide United 1–2 (xG 0.61–2.29)
- 18 Apr · A v Brisbane Roar 3–2 (xG 2.28–1.09)
- 12 Apr · H v Wellington Phoenix 2–0 (xG 2.36–0.58)
Head-to-head
Melbourne Victory 2 · draws 2 · Melbourne City 2, 2.3 goals a game
- 21 Feb 2026 · Melbourne City 1–3 Melbourne Victory (A-League)
- 20 Dec 2025 · Melbourne City 0–1 Melbourne Victory (A-League)
- 8 Nov 2025 · Melbourne Victory 0–2 Melbourne City (A-League)
- 31 May 2025 · Melbourne City 1–0 Melbourne Victory (A-League)
- 22 Feb 2025 · Melbourne Victory 2–2 Melbourne City (A-League)
- 21 Dec 2024 · Melbourne Victory 1–1 Melbourne City (A-League)