Avellino
0–1
Padova
Sat 24 Oct, 13:00
Partenio-Adriano Lombardi
Maria Sole Ferrieri Caputi, Italy
Match result: no bet
LostHome win
45%
Bookmakers 43%
Draw
29%
Bookmakers 29%
Away win
26%
Bookmakers 27%
Us 45%Bookmakers 43%
Edge +1.4 pts
Uncertainty ±2.1%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 45% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.4% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 45% against a market price of 43% (+1.4%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAvellino
DWLDW
- 18 Oct · A v Cesena 1–1 (xG 1.19–2.17)
- 9 Oct · H v Sampdoria 4–1 (xG 2.27–0.52)
- 19 Sep · A v Ascoli 1–3 (xG 0.85–1.06)
- 13 Sep · H v Palermo 1–1 (xG 1.87–0.55)
- 6 Sep · A v Modena 1–0 (xG 0.46–1.91)
Padova
LLLWL
- 17 Oct · H v Virtus Entella 1–2 (xG 0.79–1.73)
- 11 Oct · H v Carrarese 0–2 (xG 0.72–1.63)
- 19 Sep · A v Palermo 1–2 (xG 1.18–2.51)
- 12 Sep · H v Ascoli 1–0 (xG 0.98–2.04)
- 6 Sep · A v Cremonese 1–3 (xG 1.30–2.46)
Head-to-head
Avellino 1 · draws 1 · Padova 0, 2.5 goals a game
- 7 Mar 2026 · Avellino 1–0 Padova (Serie B)
- 30 Sep 2025 · Padova 2–2 Avellino (Serie B)