Ascoli
19:00
Sampdoria
Tue 27 Oct, 19:00
Cino e Lillo Del Duca
Marco Di Bello
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 77%Books 76% Best odds 1.31 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
48%
Bookmakers 44%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
25%
Bookmakers 27%
Us 48%Bookmakers 44%
Edge +3.3 pts
Uncertainty ±1.8%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 48% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +3.3% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 48% against a market price of 44% (+3.3%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 3 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAscoli
WDDWL
- 24 Oct · A v Catanzaro 6–1 (xG 3.93–1.86)
- 17 Oct · H v Empoli 1–1 (xG 1.59–0.82)
- 10 Oct · A v Sudtirol 0–0 (xG 0.58–1.02)
- 19 Sep · H v Avellino 3–1 (xG 1.06–0.85)
- 12 Sep · A v Padova 0–1 (xG 2.04–0.98)
Sampdoria
DLLWL
- 24 Oct · A v Sudtirol 1–1 (xG 0.63–1.84)
- 18 Oct · H v Arezzo 1–2 (xG 2.70–0.97)
- 9 Oct · A v Avellino 1–4 (xG 0.52–2.27)
- 19 Sep · H v Catanzaro 2–1 (xG 2.83–1.43)
- 13 Sep · A v Mantova 0–2 (xG 1.75–1.13)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.