Benevento
18:00
Catanzaro
Tue 27 Oct, 18:00
Stadio Ciro Vigorito
Alberto Poli
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 82%Books 81% Best odds 1.21 (Pinnacle)
Match result: no bet
Home win
58%
Bookmakers 60%
Draw
23%
Bookmakers 22%
Away win
19%
Bookmakers 18%
Us 58%Bookmakers 60%
Edge -1.6 pts
Uncertainty ±1.8%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 58% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 58% against a market price of 60% (-1.6%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 4 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsBenevento
WDWWW
- 24 Oct · A v Arezzo 3–0 (xG 2.72–0.41)
- 17 Oct · H v Vicenza Virtus 2–2 (xG 2.00–1.23)
- 10 Oct · H v Cesena 2–0 (xG 1.74–0.53)
- 19 Sep · A v Carrarese 1–0 (xG 1.25–0.83)
- 11 Sep · H v Hellas Verona 3–1 (xG 1.13–1.44)
Catanzaro
LDLLW
- 24 Oct · H v Ascoli 1–6 (xG 1.86–3.93)
- 16 Oct · A v Hellas Verona 2–2 (xG 1.24–1.97)
- 11 Oct · H v Mantova 1–3 (xG 0.96–2.73)
- 19 Sep · A v Sampdoria 1–2 (xG 1.43–2.83)
- 12 Sep · H v Carrarese 1–0 (xG 2.44–0.57)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.