Carrarese
19:00
Arezzo
Wed 28 Oct, 19:00
Stadio dei Marmi
Maco Di Loreto
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 74%Books 73% Best odds 1.33 (Betfair)
Match result: no bet
Home win
44%
Bookmakers 42%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 29%
Away win
28%
Bookmakers 29%
Us 44%Bookmakers 42%
Edge +1.7 pts
Uncertainty ±2.5%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 44% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +1.7% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 44% against a market price of 42% (+1.7%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsCarrarese
LWWLL
- 25 Oct · A v Palermo 1–2 (xG 1.32–1.93)
- 17 Oct · H v Modena 2–1 (xG 1.78–1.03)
- 11 Oct · A v Padova 2–0 (xG 1.63–0.72)
- 19 Sep · H v Benevento 0–1 (xG 0.83–1.25)
- 12 Sep · A v Catanzaro 0–1 (xG 0.57–2.44)
Arezzo
LWDLW
- 24 Oct · H v Benevento 0–3 (xG 0.41–2.72)
- 18 Oct · A v Sampdoria 2–1 (xG 0.97–2.70)
- 10 Oct · H v Cremonese 0–0 (xG 1.01–0.21)
- 20 Sep · H v Sudtirol 1–4 (xG 1.73–1.09)
- 11 Sep · A v Empoli 1–0 (xG 1.08–0.48)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.