Cesena
19:00
Empoli
Tue 27 Oct, 19:00
Dino Manuzzi
Mario Perri
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 75%Books 73% Best odds 1.35 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
45%
Bookmakers 45%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
28%
Bookmakers 27%
Us 45%Bookmakers 45%
Edge +0.2 pts
Uncertainty ±2.4%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 45% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.2% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 45% against a market price of 45% (+0.2%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 3 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsCesena
LDLDD
- 24 Oct · A v Modena 0–3 (xG 0.18–2.19)
- 18 Oct · H v Avellino 1–1 (xG 2.17–1.19)
- 10 Oct · A v Benevento 0–2 (xG 0.53–1.74)
- 18 Sep · A v Juve Stabia 1–1
- 12 Sep · H v Cremonese 2–2 (xG 1.15–1.23)
Empoli
LDLLL
- 23 Oct · H v Vicenza Virtus 0–2 (xG 0.57–2.01)
- 17 Oct · A v Ascoli 1–1 (xG 0.82–1.59)
- 10 Oct · H v Palermo 2–4 (xG 1.91–4.91)
- 20 Sep · A v Modena 1–2 (xG 0.71–1.72)
- 11 Sep · H v Arezzo 0–1 (xG 0.48–1.08)
Head-to-head
Cesena 0 · draws 1 · Empoli 1, 1.5 goals a game
- 28 Feb 2026 · Empoli 1–1 Cesena (Serie B)
- 10 Jan 2026 · Cesena 0–1 Empoli (Serie B)