Mantova
19:00
Cremonese
Tue 27 Oct, 19:00
Stadio Danilo Martelli
Rapuano Andrea
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 75%Books 74% Best odds 1.33 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
46%
Bookmakers 43%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
27%
Bookmakers 29%
Us 46%Bookmakers 43%
Edge +2.6 pts
Uncertainty ±3.8%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 46% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.6% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 46% against a market price of 43% (+2.6%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 4 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsMantova
WLWDW
- 24 Oct · A v Virtus Entella 1–0 (xG 1.01–1.37)
- 17 Oct · H v Palermo 0–2 (xG 1.92–2.00)
- 11 Oct · A v Catanzaro 3–1 (xG 2.73–0.96)
- 20 Sep · H v Pisa 2–2 (xG 1.98–2.18)
- 13 Sep · H v Sampdoria 2–0 (xG 1.13–1.75)
Cremonese
LLDDD
- 24 Oct · H v Juve Stabia 0–1 (xG 1.63–0.73)
- 17 Oct · A v Pisa 1–3 (xG 0.51–2.39)
- 10 Oct · A v Arezzo 0–0 (xG 0.21–1.01)
- 19 Sep · H v Virtus Entella 0–0 (xG 1.01–1.02)
- 12 Sep · A v Cesena 2–2 (xG 1.23–1.15)
Head-to-head
Mantova 1 · draws 0 · Cremonese 1, 3.5 goals a game
- 25 Apr 2025 · Cremonese 4–2 Mantova (Serie B)
- 9 Nov 2024 · Mantova 1–0 Cremonese (Serie B)