Al-Ahli Jeddah
16:00
Al-Gharafa
Mon 26 Oct, 16:00
Alinma Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
77%
Bookmakers 77%
Draw
14%
Bookmakers 14%
Away win
9%
Bookmakers 9%
Us 77%Bookmakers 77%
Edge +0.3 pts
Uncertainty ±1.4%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: no profit at the best price (-1.7% expected per unit).
- Home win: 77% against a market price of 77% (+0.3%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsAl-Ahli Jeddah
WWWWD
- 23 Oct · H v Al Khaleej Saihat 4–1 (xG 3.98–0.52)
- 19 Oct · A v Al-Fayha 3–2 (xG 4.18–0.70)
- 12 Oct · A v Al-Wasl FC 3–1 (xG 1.32–0.96)
- 9 Oct · A v Al-Fateh 4–0 (xG 2.54–0.45)
- 14 Sep · H v Pakhtakor 1–1
Al-Gharafa
DDLLL
- 22 Oct · H v Al Ahli Doha 2–2 (xG 1.53–2.73)
- 18 Oct · H v Al-Rayyan SC 0–0 (xG 0.33–1.03)
- 12 Oct · H v Esteghlal FC 1–2 (xG 1.79–0.67)
- 8 Oct · A v Al Wakrah 2–3
- 15 Sep · A v Al-Hilal Saudi FC 1–2 (xG 0.48–1.80)
Head-to-head
Al-Ahli Jeddah 2 · draws 0 · Al-Gharafa 0, 5.0 goals a game
- 20 Oct 2025 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–0 Al-Gharafa (AFC Champions League Elite)
- 17 Feb 2025 · Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–2 Al-Gharafa (AFC Champions League Elite)