Bayer Leverkusen
19:45
1. FC Nürnberg
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45
BayArena
Felix Zwayer
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 93%Books 93% Best odds 1.07 (Betano)
Most likely: Home win
Home win
83%
Bookmakers 84%
Draw
11%
Bookmakers 10%
Away win
7%
Bookmakers 6%
Us 83%Bookmakers 84%
Edge -1.1 pts
Uncertainty ±2.1%
Most likely home win, and the bookmakers agree: no edge on the price, but a likely leg for a slip.
- Home win: 83% against a market price of 84% (-1.1%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsBayer Leverkusen
LWWWW
- 25 Oct · A v 1899 Hoffenheim 0–3 (xG 0.68–3.34)
- 22 Oct · A v OFI 2–0 (xG 3.42–0.28)
- 18 Oct · H v SC Freiburg 2–1 (xG 1.67–1.08)
- 15 Oct · A v Lech Poznan 4–0 (xG 5.22–0.57)
- 10 Oct · A v FSV Mainz 05 4–3 (xG 1.69–2.87)
1. FC Nürnberg
LDDWW
- 24 Oct · H v 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–1 (xG 2.18–0.88)
- 16 Oct · A v Energie Cottbus 1–1 (xG 1.37–1.91)
- 10 Oct · H v VfL Wolfsburg 4–4 (xG 2.38–3.71)
- 19 Sep · A v Karlsruher SC 1–0 (xG 0.81–0.43)
- 11 Sep · H v Hannover 96 2–1 (xG 2.15–1.26)
Head-to-head
No previous meeting stored.