VfL Bochum
17:00
FSV Mainz 05
Tue 27 Oct, 17:00
Vonovia Ruhrstadion
Michael Bacher
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 83%Books 83% Best odds 1.20 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
20%
Bookmakers 18%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 22%
Away win
58%
Bookmakers 60%
Us 58%Bookmakers 60%
Edge -1.7 pts
Uncertainty ±3.6%
Most likely away win, but we would not bet on it: only 58% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Away win: 58% against a market price of 60% (-1.7%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 5 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsVfL Bochum
DLLLD
- 23 Oct · H v VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 (xG 1.59–0.78)
- 17 Oct · A v 1. FC Kaiserslautern 0–2 (xG 0.61–2.37)
- 11 Oct · H v Arminia Bielefeld 0–1 (xG 0.53–1.52)
- 20 Sep · A v Hannover 96 1–2 (xG 1.73–1.77)
- 12 Sep · H v SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1–1 (xG 1.53–1.64)
FSV Mainz 05
LWLWL
- 24 Oct · H v Werder Bremen 2–3 (xG 1.73–2.58)
- 17 Oct · A v FC Schalke 04 1–0 (xG 1.53–0.33)
- 10 Oct · H v Bayer Leverkusen 3–4 (xG 2.87–1.69)
- 19 Sep · A v Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–3 (xG 2.82–3.24)
- 12 Sep · H v Eintracht Frankfurt 1–3 (xG 2.12–2.04)
Head-to-head
VfL Bochum 0 · draws 0 · FSV Mainz 05 2, 3.5 goals a game
- 10 May 2025 · VfL Bochum 1–4 FSV Mainz 05 (Bundesliga)
- 11 Jan 2025 · FSV Mainz 05 2–0 VfL Bochum (Bundesliga)