Al-Dhafra
13:05
Dubai United
Fri 16 Oct, 13:05
Hamdan Bin Zayed Stadium
Match of the day: fully open
Our pick: Away win
ValueHome win
35%
Bookmakers 42%
Draw
23%
Bookmakers 25%
Away win
43%
Bookmakers 33%
Us 43%Bookmakers 33%
Edge +9.5 pts
Uncertainty ±8.7%
Value: our 43% beats the market's 33%.
Why
- Away win 43% against a market price of 33% (+9.5%).
- Expected goals Al-Dhafra 1.34 – 2.23 Dubai United, from 5 and 5 matches in this competition over the last 12 months (recent ones count more). Our model carries 39% of the weight; the market price carries the rest.
- Al-Dhafra's attack (rating 0.65, league average 1.00) adds 5.6 pts to the away win.
- Dubai United's attack (rating 1.24) adds 3.6 pts to the away win.
- Dubai United's defence (goals-against rating 1.30) takes 2.6 pts from the away win.
- Tagged Value: our 43% beats the market's 33%.
What moved the number
Points of probability for away win
Al-Dhafra attack
5.6
Dubai United attack
3.6
Dubai United defence
-2.6
Home advantage
1.2
Al-Dhafra defence
0.5
Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.
How the price moved
Implied chance of away win, per bookmakerLikely scores
Al-Dhafra down, Dubai United across| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| 1 | 4% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 4% | 2% |
| 2 | 3% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% |
| 3 | 1% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 1% |
| 4 | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| 5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Most likely: 1–2 9%, 1–1 8%, 0–2 7%.
Team news
Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.
Why it changed
1 version-
Version 1 Fri 00:00, scheduledFirst published. Hashed into the public ledger.