Leones del Norte
16:30
Libertad
Sun 25 Oct, 16:30
Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
42%
Bookmakers 48%
Draw
28%
Bookmakers 28%
Away win
30%
Bookmakers 25%
Us 42%Bookmakers 48%
Edge -5.4 pts
Uncertainty ±2.7%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 42% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 42% against a market price of 48% (-5.4%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsLeones del Norte
LLDLD
- 18 Oct · H v Emelec 1–3 (xG 0.49–1.71)
- 9 Oct · A v Libertad 0–3 (xG 1.03–2.12)
- 19 Sep · A v Guayaquil City FC 1–1
- 13 Sep · H v Tecnico Universitario 0–1
- 8 Sep · A v Mushuc Runa SC 1–1
Libertad
WWWLW
- 17 Oct · H v Guayaquil City FC 4–0 (xG 1.97–0.78)
- 9 Oct · H v Leones del Norte 3–0 (xG 2.12–1.03)
- 20 Sep · A v Emelec 2–1
- 13 Sep · H v Independiente del Valle 2–3
- 7 Sep · A v Deportivo Cuenca 1–0
Head-to-head
Leones del Norte 1 · draws 1 · Libertad 1, 3.0 goals a game
- 9 Oct 2026 · Libertad 3–0 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro)
- 4 Jul 2026 · Libertad 1–3 Leones del Norte (Liga Pro)
- 28 Feb 2026 · Leones del Norte 1–1 Libertad (Liga Pro)