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Bournemouth
19:45
Aston Villa
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 Vitality Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.

Match result: no bet

Home win
43%
Bookmakers 43%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
31%
Bookmakers 30%
Us 43%Bookmakers 43% Edge -0.4 pts Uncertainty ±1.9%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 43% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

  • Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (-0.4%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Bournemouth

WWWWL
  • 25 Oct · A v Manchester United 3–0 (xG 2.21–1.17)
  • 22 Oct · H v AC Milan 3–0 (xG 3.22–0.17)
  • 18 Oct · H v Sunderland 2–0 (xG 4.40–0.13)
  • 15 Oct · H v Sturm Graz 3–0 (xG 2.88–0.37)
  • 10 Oct · A v Chelsea 1–5 (xG 1.38–1.10)

Aston Villa

WWWWD
  • 24 Oct · H v Manchester City 2–1 (xG 0.64–1.81)
  • 21 Oct · H v Viking 3–1 (xG 2.75–0.81)
  • 17 Oct · A v Newcastle 1–0 (xG 1.63–1.07)
  • 14 Oct · H v Fenerbahçe 6–0 (xG 3.15–1.75)
  • 10 Oct · H v Brentford 2–2 (xG 2.28–1.06)

Head-to-head

Bournemouth 0 · draws 2 · Aston Villa 2, 2.3 goals a game

  • 7 Feb 2026 · Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
  • 9 Nov 2025 · Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
  • 10 May 2025 · Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
  • 26 Oct 2024 · Aston Villa 1–1 Bournemouth (Premier League)