Bournemouth
19:45
Aston Villa
Wed 28 Oct, 19:45
Vitality Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 79%Books 79% Best odds 1.25 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
43%
Bookmakers 43%
Draw
26%
Bookmakers 26%
Away win
31%
Bookmakers 30%
Us 43%Bookmakers 43%
Edge -0.4 pts
Uncertainty ±1.9%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 43% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (-0.4%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsBournemouth
WWWWL
- 25 Oct · A v Manchester United 3–0 (xG 2.21–1.17)
- 22 Oct · H v AC Milan 3–0 (xG 3.22–0.17)
- 18 Oct · H v Sunderland 2–0 (xG 4.40–0.13)
- 15 Oct · H v Sturm Graz 3–0 (xG 2.88–0.37)
- 10 Oct · A v Chelsea 1–5 (xG 1.38–1.10)
Aston Villa
WWWWD
- 24 Oct · H v Manchester City 2–1 (xG 0.64–1.81)
- 21 Oct · H v Viking 3–1 (xG 2.75–0.81)
- 17 Oct · A v Newcastle 1–0 (xG 1.63–1.07)
- 14 Oct · H v Fenerbahçe 6–0 (xG 3.15–1.75)
- 10 Oct · H v Brentford 2–2 (xG 2.28–1.06)
Head-to-head
Bournemouth 0 · draws 2 · Aston Villa 2, 2.3 goals a game
- 7 Feb 2026 · Bournemouth 1–1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 9 Nov 2025 · Aston Villa 4–0 Bournemouth (Premier League)
- 10 May 2025 · Bournemouth 0–1 Aston Villa (Premier League)
- 26 Oct 2024 · Aston Villa 1–1 Bournemouth (Premier League)