Everton
19:45
Newcastle
Thu 29 Oct, 19:45
Hill Dickinson Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 77%Books 78% Best odds 1.26 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
44%
Bookmakers 43%
Draw
27%
Bookmakers 27%
Away win
30%
Bookmakers 30%
Us 44%Bookmakers 43%
Edge +0.9 pts
Uncertainty ±1.7%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 44% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +0.9% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 44% against a market price of 43% (+0.9%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsEverton
LLDWW
- 24 Oct · A v Arsenal 0–2 (xG 0.54–1.85)
- 17 Oct · H v Chelsea 0–2 (xG 0.54–1.59)
- 11 Oct · A v Hull City 2–2 (xG 1.71–1.33)
- 19 Sep · H v Ipswich 1–0 (xG 2.24–1.44)
- 16 Sep · H v Wolves 1–0
Newcastle
WLLWL
- 25 Oct · A v Crystal Palace 2–0 (xG 1.03–1.78)
- 17 Oct · H v Aston Villa 0–1 (xG 1.07–1.63)
- 12 Oct · A v Coventry 1–4 (xG 1.85–1.52)
- 19 Sep · H v Hull City 2–1 (xG 1.44–1.59)
- 14 Sep · A v Leeds 1–4 (xG 0.88–2.08)
Head-to-head
Everton 2 · draws 1 · Newcastle 1, 2.8 goals a game
- 28 Feb 2026 · Newcastle 2–3 Everton (Premier League)
- 29 Nov 2025 · Everton 1–4 Newcastle (Premier League)
- 25 May 2025 · Newcastle 0–1 Everton (Premier League)
- 5 Oct 2024 · Everton 0–0 Newcastle (Premier League)