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Fleetwood Town
20:00
Arsenal
Tue 27 Oct, 20:00 Highbury Stadium Michael Salisbury Match of the day: fully open
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge
  • Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals
    Us 89%Books 90% Best odds 1.10 (Pinnacle)
  • Match resultAway win
    Us 89%Books 90% Best odds 1.10 (Betano)
  • Cards O/U 4.5Under 4.5 cards
    Us 82%Books 82% Best odds 1.17 (Betano)
  • Goals O/U 2.5Over 2.5 goals
    Us 72%Books 73% Best odds 1.33 (Betano)
  • Cards O/U 3.5Under 3.5 cards
    Us 65%Books 65% Best odds 1.57 (Bet365)
  • Corners O/U 10.5Under 10.5 corners
    Us 62%Books 63% Best odds 1.55 (Betano)
  • Corners O/U 8.5Over 8.5 corners
    Us 61%Books 61% Best odds 1.65 (Pinnacle)

Most likely: Away win

Home win
3%
Bookmakers 3%
Draw
8%
Bookmakers 7%
Away win
89%
Bookmakers 90%
Us 89%Bookmakers 90% Edge -1.4 pts Uncertainty ±2.3%

Most likely away win, and the bookmakers agree: no edge on the price, but a likely leg for a slip. Match simulator (10,000 simulated games per match)

Why

  • Away win: 89% against a market price of 90% (-1.4%).
  • Expected goals Fleetwood Town 1.01 – 2.39 Arsenal.
  • Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 67% (uncertainty ±11.2%), so it carries 10% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
  • Current form (Elo gap -418 for Fleetwood Town, Fleetwood Town creating +17% xG lately, Arsenal creating +30% xG lately) adds 3.5 pts to away win.
  • Home advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) takes 0.3 pts from away win.
  • Tagged Avoid: no profit at the best price (-2.5% expected per unit).
  • Different leagues: Fleetwood Town play in League Two (England), Arsenal in Premier League (England). Our ratings come mostly from domestic games and cannot yet put the two leagues on one scale, so our uncertainty is widened 2.0× and only a clear edge counts as a bet.

What moved the number

Points of probability for away win
Form
3.5
Home advantage
-0.3
Rest days
0.2
Fleetwood Town defence
-0.2
Missing regular starters
-0.1

Each bar is measured by switching that factor off and recomputing, so the words above match these numbers.

How the price moved

Implied chance of away win, per bookmaker

Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Elo rating Fleetwood Town 1466, Arsenal 1896. Our model reads recent xG for and against, Elo and these meetings before kickoff; the reasons above show how much each moved the numbers.

Fleetwood Town

LLWDW
  • 24 Oct · A v Exeter City 1–2 (xG 0.90–1.26)
  • 20 Oct · A v Cheltenham 2–4 (xG 2.38–1.91)
  • 17 Oct · H v Rotherham 2–0 (xG 1.67–1.05)
  • 10 Oct · H v Walsall 1–1 (xG 3.17–1.25)
  • 6 Oct · H v Barnsley 4–1

Arsenal

WDWWW
  • 24 Oct · H v Everton 2–0 (xG 1.85–0.54)
  • 21 Oct · A v Bayern München 2–2 (xG 1.71–2.50)
  • 18 Oct · A v Nottingham Forest 1–0 (xG 1.09–0.79)
  • 13 Oct · H v Lille 3–0 (xG 1.70–0.30)
  • 10 Oct · H v Leeds 2–1 (xG 2.33–0.62)

Head-to-head

No previous meeting stored.

Likely scores

Fleetwood Town down, Arsenal across
012345
03%8%10%8%5%2%
13%8%10%8%5%2%
22%4%5%4%2%1%
31%1%2%1%1%0%
40%0%0%0%0%0%
50%0%0%0%0%0%

Most likely: 1–2 10%, 0–2 10%, 1–1 8%.

Team news

Referee: Michael Salisbury.

Rest: Fleetwood Town 3 days, Arsenal 3 days.

Confirmed lineups usually arrive about an hour before kickoff. The pick is re-checked the moment they do.

Why it changed

1 version
  1. Version 1 Sun 00:57, ahead
    First published. Recorded in the public ledger.

Events we caught

  • Tue 11:00 Referee assigned: Michael Salisbury No material change
  • Mon 21:08 Cards O/U 3.5 market moved: over 39% → 36%, under 61% → 64% New version published
  • Mon 18:29 Corners O/U 10.5 market moved: over 42% → 38%, under 58% → 62% New version published
  • Mon 18:29 Cards O/U 4.5 market moved: over 24% → 21%, under 76% → 79% New version published
  • Sun 03:37 Corners O/U 10.5 market moved: over 44% → 41%, under 56% → 59% New version published