Liverpool
20:00
Chelsea
Wed 28 Oct, 20:00
Anfield
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.
Match result: no bet
Home win
41%
Bookmakers 38%
Draw
24%
Bookmakers 25%
Away win
35%
Bookmakers 37%
Us 41%Bookmakers 38%
Edge +3.3 pts
Uncertainty ±2.1%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 41% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +3.3% alone is not enough).
- Home win: 41% against a market price of 38% (+3.3%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsLiverpool
WWWWL
- 25 Oct · H v Brighton 2–0 (xG 0.95–1.41)
- 20 Oct · H v Villarreal 4–3 (xG 2.41–1.59)
- 17 Oct · A v Brentford 2–1 (xG 1.54–0.90)
- 14 Oct · A v Lask Linz 6–3 (xG 3.26–2.08)
- 11 Oct · H v Manchester City 0–3 (xG 0.94–1.28)
Chelsea
LWWLD
- 24 Oct · H v Tottenham 0–2 (xG 0.55–0.80)
- 17 Oct · A v Everton 2–0 (xG 1.59–0.54)
- 10 Oct · H v Bournemouth 5–1 (xG 1.10–1.38)
- 18 Sep · A v Brentford 0–3 (xG 0.83–2.65)
- 12 Sep · H v Hull City 2–2 (xG 0.91–1.38)
Head-to-head
Liverpool 1 · draws 1 · Chelsea 2, 3.0 goals a game
- 9 May 2026 · Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea (Premier League)
- 4 Oct 2025 · Chelsea 2–1 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 4 May 2025 · Chelsea 3–1 Liverpool (Premier League)
- 20 Oct 2024 · Liverpool 2–1 Chelsea (Premier League)