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Liverpool
20:00
Chelsea
Wed 28 Oct, 20:00 Anfield
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.

Likely, at a fair price

We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge
  • Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goals
    Us 86%Books 86% Best odds 1.16 (Betano)

Match result: no bet

Home win
45%
Bookmakers 43%
Draw
24%
Bookmakers 24%
Away win
31%
Bookmakers 33%
Us 45%Bookmakers 43% Edge +2.1 pts Uncertainty ±1.8%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 45% likely; a bet needs at least 60% (value +2.1% alone is not enough).

  • Home win: 45% against a market price of 43% (+2.1%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 4 versions of this pick

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Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Liverpool

WWWWL
  • 25 Oct · H v Brighton 2–0 (xG 0.95–1.41)
  • 20 Oct · H v Villarreal 4–3 (xG 2.41–1.59)
  • 17 Oct · A v Brentford 2–1 (xG 1.54–0.90)
  • 14 Oct · A v Lask Linz 6–3 (xG 3.26–2.08)
  • 11 Oct · H v Manchester City 0–3 (xG 0.94–1.28)

Chelsea

LWWLD
  • 24 Oct · H v Tottenham 0–2 (xG 0.55–0.80)
  • 17 Oct · A v Everton 2–0 (xG 1.59–0.54)
  • 10 Oct · H v Bournemouth 5–1 (xG 1.10–1.38)
  • 18 Sep · A v Brentford 0–3 (xG 0.83–2.65)
  • 12 Sep · H v Hull City 2–2 (xG 0.91–1.38)

Head-to-head

Liverpool 1 · draws 1 · Chelsea 2, 3.0 goals a game

  • 9 May 2026 · Liverpool 1–1 Chelsea (Premier League)
  • 4 Oct 2025 · Chelsea 2–1 Liverpool (Premier League)
  • 4 May 2025 · Chelsea 3–1 Liverpool (Premier League)
  • 20 Oct 2024 · Liverpool 2–1 Chelsea (Premier League)