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Manchester City
19:30
Brighton
Wed 28 Oct, 19:30 Etihad Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside.

Match result: no bet

Home win
57%
Bookmakers 58%
Draw
22%
Bookmakers 22%
Away win
21%
Bookmakers 20%
Us 57%Bookmakers 58% Edge -0.5 pts Uncertainty ±1.6%

Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 57% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.

  • Home win: 57% against a market price of 58% (-0.5%).

The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 1 version of this pick

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Form and head-to-head

All competitions

Manchester City

LWWLW
  • 24 Oct · A v Aston Villa 1–2 (xG 1.81–0.64)
  • 20 Oct · H v AEK Athens FC 5–1 (xG 2.82–1.23)
  • 17 Oct · H v Ipswich 3–2 (xG 3.61–1.72)
  • 14 Oct · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–4 (xG 2.67–1.85)
  • 11 Oct · A v Liverpool 3–0 (xG 1.28–0.94)

Brighton

LDWWW
  • 25 Oct · A v Liverpool 0–2 (xG 1.41–0.95)
  • 22 Oct · A v FK Jablonec 0–0 (xG 1.42–0.73)
  • 18 Oct · H v Crystal Palace 5–0 (xG 2.02–0.77)
  • 15 Oct · H v Kauno Žalgiris 4–0 (xG 4.02–0.04)
  • 10 Oct · A v Sunderland 2–0 (xG 1.41–0.72)

Head-to-head

Manchester City 0 · draws 2 · Brighton 2, 3.0 goals a game

  • 7 Jan 2026 · Manchester City 1–1 Brighton (Premier League)
  • 31 Aug 2025 · Brighton 2–1 Manchester City (Premier League)
  • 15 Mar 2025 · Manchester City 2–2 Brighton (Premier League)
  • 9 Nov 2024 · Brighton 2–1 Manchester City (Premier League)