Manchester City
19:30
Brighton
Wed 28 Oct, 19:30
Etihad Stadium
No bet worth taking on this match. None of its markets beats the bookmakers' price by more than our own uncertainty, so we stand aside. The likely outcomes below agree with the bookmakers instead.
Likely, at a fair price
We agree with the bookmakers: likely to land, but the odds give no edge-
Goals O/U 1.5Over 1.5 goalsUs 85%Books 86% Best odds 1.17 (Betano)
Match result: no bet
Home win
58%
Bookmakers 59%
Draw
21%
Bookmakers 22%
Away win
20%
Bookmakers 19%
Us 58%Bookmakers 59%
Edge -0.7 pts
Uncertainty ±1.6%
Most likely home win, but we would not bet on it: only 58% likely; a bet needs at least 60%.
- Home win: 58% against a market price of 59% (-0.7%).
The full reasoning, 20 more markets and 2 versions of this pick
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Form and head-to-head
All competitionsManchester City
LWWLW
- 24 Oct · A v Aston Villa 1–2 (xG 1.81–0.64)
- 20 Oct · H v AEK Athens FC 5–1 (xG 2.82–1.23)
- 17 Oct · H v Ipswich 3–2 (xG 3.61–1.72)
- 14 Oct · H v Paris Saint Germain 2–4 (xG 2.67–1.85)
- 11 Oct · A v Liverpool 3–0 (xG 1.28–0.94)
Brighton
LDWWW
- 25 Oct · A v Liverpool 0–2 (xG 1.41–0.95)
- 22 Oct · A v FK Jablonec 0–0 (xG 1.42–0.73)
- 18 Oct · H v Crystal Palace 5–0 (xG 2.02–0.77)
- 15 Oct · H v Kauno Žalgiris 4–0 (xG 4.02–0.04)
- 10 Oct · A v Sunderland 2–0 (xG 1.41–0.72)
Head-to-head
Manchester City 0 · draws 2 · Brighton 2, 3.0 goals a game
- 7 Jan 2026 · Manchester City 1–1 Brighton (Premier League)
- 31 Aug 2025 · Brighton 2–1 Manchester City (Premier League)
- 15 Mar 2025 · Manchester City 2–2 Brighton (Premier League)
- 9 Nov 2024 · Brighton 2–1 Manchester City (Premier League)