Thu 9 Jul — Trosbet

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Thu 9 Jul

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217 of 450 settled picks won, closing-line value +0.0%

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Eerste Divisie, Mon 18:00

Home winUpset Watch 30%

Home win: 30% against a market price of 26% (+4.8%).
Expected goals Jong Utrecht 1.57 – 1.47 Roda.
Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.3%), so it carries 34% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 2.7 pts to home win.

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