Wed 15 Jul — Trosbet

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Wed 15 Jul

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198 of 404 settled picks won, closing-line value +0.0%

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Serie B, Sun 19:00

Home winUpset Watch 36%

Home win: 36% against a market price of 28% (+7.2%).
Expected goals São Bernardo 1.19 – 0.80 Criciuma.
Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 45% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
Home advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 4.8 pts to home win.

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