Sat 18 Jul — Trosbet

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Sat 18 Jul

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163 of 339 settled picks won, closing-line value +0.0%

Saturday 18 July All matches

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Serie B, Sun 19:00

Home winUpset Watch 35%

Home win: 35% against a market price of 28% (+6.2%).
Expected goals São Bernardo 1.31 – 0.89 Criciuma.
Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 46% (uncertainty ±5.9%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
Home advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 4.0 pts to home win.

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