Mon 3 Aug — Trosbet

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Mon 3 Aug

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42 of 89 settled picks won, closing-line value +0.1%

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Bundesliga, Sat 15:00

Home winUpset Watch 17%

Home win: 17% against a market price of 12% (+5.8%).
Expected goals Austria Lustenau 1.48 – 1.44 Lask Linz.
Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 37% (uncertainty ±7.0%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
Home advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.

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