Mon 17 Aug — Trosbet

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Mon 17 Aug

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11 of 20 settled picks won, closing-line value +0.0%

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Eerste Divisie, Fri 18:00

Home winUpset Watch 26%

Home win: 26% against a market price of 17% (+9.2%).
Expected goals Helmond Sport 1.71 – 1.65 NAC Breda.
Simulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 44% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.
Home advantage in this league (+26% goals at home) adds 3.6 pts to home win.

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