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Entry #106: pick published

Hash verified

Estudiantes L.P. v Flamengo: Home win 26% @ 4.12 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-16T00:32:21.215623+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: b9d5a5ffc20a634b8fd838cb99b69c54de37467aea7e984668942f1c5031966b
Stored hash: 6817b8d7b0e80bb4f57dae3f3481420d01f707e9b9fac591482fdecbd52f01f2
Recomputed: 6817b8d7b0e80bb4f57dae3f3481420d01f707e9b9fac591482fdecbd52f01f2

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Flamengo",
  "bookmakers": 10,
  "edge": 0.0319,
  "explanation": "Home win: 26% against a market price of 22% (+3.2%).\nExpected goals Estudiantes L.P. 1.17 – 0.92 Flamengo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±8.5%), so it carries 19% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+49% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nFlamengo's defence (0.82× the league rate against) takes 1.3 pts from home win.\nEstudiantes L.P.'s defence (0.88× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nFlamengo's attack (1.10× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 26% → 26% (-0.9 pts); Draw 32% → 31% (-0.5 pts); Away win 42% → 43% (+1.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 23% → 22%; Draw 32% → 31%; Away win 44% → 46%.",
  "fixture": 1640555,
  "home": "Estudiantes L.P.",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-16T00:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "CONMEBOL Libertadores",
  "league_api_id": 13,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2236,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-13-v1)",
  "odds_taken": "4.12",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.2555,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nOur probabilities: Home win 26% → 26% (-0.9 pts); Draw 32% → 31% (-0.5 pts); Away win 42% → 43% (+1.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 23% → 22%; Draw 32% → 31%; Away win 44% → 46%."
}

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