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Entry #1335: pick published

Hash verified

Fluminense v Santos: Home win 45% @ 2.37 (Value)

Written: 2026-10-18T18:41:05.829503+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 79d55063e0a81e542ae46bf18550f1a77930c0186637ed0e30200f5219d6aa34
Stored hash: a9a7f780b2aef8833cd321c004253c682eebc0961551daaf4bd15f81c11bf73f
Recomputed: a9a7f780b2aef8833cd321c004253c682eebc0961551daaf4bd15f81c11bf73f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Santos",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0479,
  "explanation": "Home win: 45% against a market price of 40% (+4.8%).\nExpected goals Fluminense 1.79 – 0.94 Santos.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 57% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) adds 3.9 pts to home win.\nRest days (Fluminense 4, Santos 7) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nFluminense's defence (0.90× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nFluminense's attack (1.05× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Value: our 45% beats the market's 40%.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Fluminense 4-2-3-1, Santos 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Draw 28% → 27% (-1.2 pts); Away win 27% → 28% (+0.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1492415,
  "home": "Fluminense",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie A",
  "league_api_id": 71,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4016,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-71-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.37",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4495,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 45% beats the market's 40%",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Fluminense 4-2-3-1, Santos 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Draw 28% → 27% (-1.2 pts); Away win 27% → 28% (+0.9 pts)."
}

#1334 #1336

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