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Entry #1334: pick published

Hash verified

FC Cajamarca v UCV Moquegua: Home win 55% @ 1.68 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T17:51:04.453703+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: fec2c8fe2e0922c65754ebbd0057a29137e8a23195a0b1d794cde776f8d49159
Stored hash: 79d55063e0a81e542ae46bf18550f1a77930c0186637ed0e30200f5219d6aa34
Recomputed: 79d55063e0a81e542ae46bf18550f1a77930c0186637ed0e30200f5219d6aa34

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "UCV Moquegua",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0102,
  "explanation": "Home win: 55% against a market price of 56% (-1.0%).\nExpected goals FC Cajamarca 1.83 – 1.21 UCV Moquegua.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 51% (uncertainty ±8.8%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+54% goals at home) adds 3.3 pts to home win.\nUCV Moquegua's attack (0.85× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nFC Cajamarca's defence (1.17× the league rate against) takes 0.9 pts from home win.\nFC Cajamarca's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.0%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1, UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 56% → 55% (-1.2 pts); Draw 23% → 24% (+0.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1549513,
  "home": "FC Cajamarca",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5628,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.68",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5526,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: FC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1, UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 56% → 55% (-1.2 pts); Draw 23% → 24% (+0.9 pts)."
}

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