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{
  "away": "FC Rostov",
  "bookmakers": 3,
  "edge": -0.0102,
  "explanation": "Home win: 44% against a market price of 45% (-1.0%).\nExpected goals Baltika 1.11 – 0.76 FC Rostov.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 29% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+23% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nBaltika's defence (0.81× the league rate against) adds 1.2 pts to home win.\nBaltika missing 2.8 regular starters: A. Mendel; FC Rostov missing 1.1 regular starters takes 1.2 pts from home win.\nRest days (Baltika 4, FC Rostov 4) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.0%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Baltika 5-4-1, FC Rostov 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 44% (-2.2 pts); Draw 30% → 32% (+2.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 46% → 45%; Draw 30% → 31%.",
  "fixture": 1561411,
  "home": "Baltika",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Premier League",
  "league_api_id": 235,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4499,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-235-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.17",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4397,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Baltika 5-4-1, FC Rostov 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 46% → 44% (-2.2 pts); Draw 30% → 32% (+2.0 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 46% → 45%; Draw 30% → 31%."
}