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{
  "away": "Farul Constanta",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0457,
  "explanation": "Home win: 65% against a market price of 69% (-4.6%).\nExpected goals Universitatea Craiova 1.71 – 0.97 Farul Constanta.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±6.0%), so it carries 33% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) adds 4.3 pts to home win.\nUniversitatea Craiova's attack (1.26× the league rate) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nUniversitatea Craiova's defence (0.79× the league rate against) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nUniversitatea Craiova missing 4.7 regular starters; Farul Constanta missing 3.0 regular starters takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-4.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Universitatea Craiova 3-4-3, Farul Constanta 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 67% → 65% (-2.0 pts); Draw 20% → 21% (+0.8 pts); Away win 13% → 14% (+1.3 pts).",
  "fixture": 1565277,
  "home": "Universitatea Craiova",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga I",
  "league_api_id": 283,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6929,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-283-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.37",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.6472,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-4.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Universitatea Craiova 3-4-3, Farul Constanta 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 67% → 65% (-2.0 pts); Draw 20% → 21% (+0.8 pts); Away win 13% → 14% (+1.3 pts)."
}