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{
  "away": "KFUM Oslo",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.03,
  "explanation": "Home win: 64% against a market price of 67% (-3.0%).\nExpected goals Tromso 1.76 – 1.03 KFUM Oslo.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 54% (uncertainty ±7.1%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.4 pts to home win.\nTromso's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nKFUM Oslo's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 0.8 pts to home win.\nTromso's defence (0.91× the league rate against) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-3.0%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: KFUM Oslo 3-4-3, Tromso 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 64% (+1.3 pts); Away win 16% → 15% (-0.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1494785,
  "home": "Tromso",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eliteserien",
  "league_api_id": 103,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6743,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-103-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "1.42",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.6443,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-3.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: KFUM Oslo 3-4-3, Tromso 5-3-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 63% → 64% (+1.3 pts); Away win 16% → 15% (-0.9 pts)."
}