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{
  "away": "Plzen",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0158,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 41% (-1.6%).\nExpected goals FK Jablonec 1.38 – 1.48 Plzen.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 34% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nPlzen's attack (1.37× the league rate) takes 2.1 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nPlzen's defence (0.91× the league rate against) takes 0.8 pts from home win.\nFK Jablonec's attack (1.08× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Plzen, FK Jablonec.\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 39% (+1.6 pts); Away win 35% → 34% (-1.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 39% → 41%; Away win 34% → 32%.",
  "fixture": 1560042,
  "home": "FK Jablonec",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Czech Liga",
  "league_api_id": 345,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.407,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-345-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.30",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3912,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Plzen, FK Jablonec.\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 39% (+1.6 pts); Away win 35% → 34% (-1.1 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 39% → 41%; Away win 34% → 32%."
}