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{
  "away": "FK Partizan",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0226,
  "explanation": "Home win: 39% against a market price of 41% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals Železničar Pančevo 1.34 – 1.47 FK Partizan.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 32% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nFK Partizan's attack (1.44× the league rate) takes 2.3 pts from home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+27% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nŽelezničar Pančevo missing 0.7 regular starters; FK Partizan missing 4.7 regular starters takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nŽelezničar Pančevo's defence (0.86× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Železničar Pančevo 4-1-4-1, FK Partizan 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 39% (-1.6 pts); Draw 27% → 27% (+0.6 pts); Away win 33% → 34% (+0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Draw 25% → 26%; Away win 34% → 33%.",
  "fixture": 1553891,
  "home": "Železničar Pančevo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Super Liga",
  "league_api_id": 286,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4104,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-286-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.23",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.3878,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Železničar Pančevo 4-1-4-1, FK Partizan 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 40% → 39% (-1.6 pts); Draw 27% → 27% (+0.6 pts); Away win 33% → 34% (+0.9 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Draw 25% → 26%; Away win 34% → 33%."
}