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{
  "away": "Comerciantes Unidos",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0055,
  "explanation": "Home win: 74% against a market price of 74% (+0.6%).\nExpected goals Sporting Cristal 2.55 – 0.76 Comerciantes Unidos.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 76% (uncertainty ±5.7%), so it carries 20% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+54% goals at home) adds 3.5 pts to home win.\nSporting Cristal's attack (1.28× the league rate) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nSporting Cristal missing 0.6 regular starters; Comerciantes Unidos missing 5.1 regular starters adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nComerciantes Unidos's defence (1.05× the league rate against) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nTagged Banker: 74% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees.\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1, Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-2-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 72% → 74% (+1.6 pts); Draw 17% → 17% (-0.6 pts); Away win 10% → 9% (-0.9 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Banker.",
  "fixture": 1549517,
  "home": "Sporting Cristal",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 281,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.7352,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-281-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.30",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.7407,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "banker",
  "tag_reason": "74% likely, uncertainty only ±1.1%, market agrees",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1, Comerciantes Unidos 4-2-2-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 72% → 74% (+1.6 pts); Draw 17% → 17% (-0.6 pts); Away win 10% → 9% (-0.9 pts).\nTag changed from Avoid to Banker."
}