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{
  "away": "CFR 1907 Cluj",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0234,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 43% (-2.3%).\nExpected goals Uta Arad 1.32 – 1.35 CFR 1907 Cluj.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 36% (uncertainty ±6.4%), so it carries 36% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+41% goals at home) adds 3.7 pts to home win.\nCFR 1907 Cluj's attack (1.19× the league rate) takes 1.6 pts from home win.\nUta Arad missing 2.1 regular starters; CFR 1907 Cluj missing 1.6 regular starters takes 1.5 pts from home win.\nCFR 1907 Cluj's defence (0.95× the league rate against) takes 0.6 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: CFR 1907 Cluj 3-4-3, Uta Arad 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 41% (-2.7 pts); Away win 30% → 32% (+2.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 44% → 43%; Away win 29% → 30%.",
  "fixture": 1565278,
  "home": "Uta Arad",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:15:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga I",
  "league_api_id": 283,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4301,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-283-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.17",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.4067,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: CFR 1907 Cluj 3-4-3, Uta Arad 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 43% → 41% (-2.7 pts); Away win 30% → 32% (+2.4 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 44% → 43%; Away win 29% → 30%."
}