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{
  "away": "Lillestrom",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0372,
  "explanation": "Home win: 41% against a market price of 37% (+3.7%).\nExpected goals Sandefjord 1.72 – 1.04 Lillestrom.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 53% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 24% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nSandefjord missing 3.2 regular starters: T. Borkeeiet; Lillestrom missing 4.5 regular starters adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nSandefjord's defence (0.89× the league rate against) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nSandefjord's attack (0.94× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nTagged Value: our 41% beats the market's 37%.\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sandefjord 4-3-3, Lillestrom 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 41% (+2.7 pts); Away win 36% → 33% (-2.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 36% → 37%; Away win 38% → 37%.\nTag changed from Avoid to Value.",
  "fixture": 1494783,
  "home": "Sandefjord",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T15:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Eliteserien",
  "league_api_id": 103,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3739,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-103-v4)",
  "odds_taken": "2.51",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.411,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "value",
  "tag_reason": "our 41% beats the market's 37%",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Sandefjord 4-3-3, Lillestrom 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 38% → 41% (+2.7 pts); Away win 36% → 33% (-2.5 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 36% → 37%; Away win 38% → 37%.\nTag changed from Avoid to Value."
}