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{
  "away": "Zalaegerszegi TE",
  "bookmakers": 5,
  "edge": -0.0178,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 51% (-1.8%).\nExpected goals Debreceni VSC 1.66 – 1.33 Zalaegerszegi TE.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±6.9%), so it carries 30% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+18% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nDebreceni VSC's attack (1.04× the league rate) adds 0.5 pts to home win.\nZalaegerszegi TE's attack (0.95× the league rate) adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nZalaegerszegi TE's defence (0.97× the league rate against) takes 0.3 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-1.8%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 50% → 49% (-1.1 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 53% → 51%; Draw 24% → 25%.",
  "fixture": 1560255,
  "home": "Debreceni VSC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "NB I",
  "league_api_id": 271,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.51,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-271-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.83",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4922,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-1.8%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 50% → 49% (-1.1 pts); Draw 24% → 25% (+0.8 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 53% → 51%; Draw 24% → 25%."
}