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{
  "away": "Manta FC",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0024,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 43% (-0.2%).\nExpected goals Delfin SC 1.10 – 0.81 Manta FC.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 42% (uncertainty ±5.8%), so it carries 47% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+34% goals at home) adds 4.3 pts to home win.\nDelfin SC's attack (0.78× the league rate) takes 4.2 pts from home win.\nManta FC's attack (0.84× the league rate) adds 1.7 pts to home win.\nDelfin SC missing 1.2 regular starters; Manta FC missing 2.6 regular starters adds 1.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.2%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Delfin SC 4-2-3-1, Manta FC 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 43% (+1.9 pts); Away win 29% → 27% (-1.9 pts).",
  "fixture": 1639824,
  "home": "Delfin SC",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Pro",
  "league_api_id": 242,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4287,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-242-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.14",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4263,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Delfin SC 4-2-3-1, Manta FC 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 43% (+1.9 pts); Away win 29% → 27% (-1.9 pts)."
}