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{
  "away": "Independiente",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0004,
  "explanation": "Home win: 42% against a market price of 42% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals Racing Club 1.17 – 0.85 Independiente.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 43% (uncertainty ±5.2%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+29% goals at home) adds 3.1 pts to home win.\nRacing Club's attack (1.07× the league rate) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nRacing Club missing 3.7 regular starters; Independiente missing 3.1 regular starters adds 0.4 pts to home win.\nIndependiente's defence (0.97× the league rate against) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Racing Club 4-3-3, Independiente 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 42% (+1.0 pts); Away win 28% → 26% (-1.1 pts).",
  "fixture": 1493194,
  "home": "Racing Club",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:45:00+00:00",
  "league": "Liga Profesional Argentina",
  "league_api_id": 128,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4245,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-128-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.24",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4248,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Racing Club 4-3-3, Independiente 4-3-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 41% → 42% (+1.0 pts); Away win 28% → 26% (-1.1 pts)."
}