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{
  "combined_odds": "32.04",
  "combined_probability": 0.044596,
  "ev": 0.4289,
  "explanation": "Long shot slip for Sun 18 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 32.04. By our numbers the fair price is 22.42, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 4.46% (about 1 in 22; likely range 3.90%–5.11%). The market's own prices imply 2.54%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 28.8%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +43% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be +20%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 4.0 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.17 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. Gremio v Cruzeiro: Home win @ 3.10 — our 36% vs the market's 30% (+5.2%), EV +10%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.2% too long by the market.\n2. São Bernardo v Criciuma: Home win @ 3.22 — our 36% vs the market's 28% (+7.2%), EV +15%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 7.2% too long by the market.\n3. Remo v RB Bragantino: Home win @ 3.21 — our 35% vs the market's 29% (+5.7%), EV +13%. Upset Watch: underdog priced 5.7% too long by the market.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Value/Upset Watch whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 3% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise a balance of chance and expected value.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 22; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v9:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: São Bernardo 3-4-3, Criciuma 4-4-2.\nCombined odds 32.04 → 32.04; chance 4.33% → 4.46%; EV +39% → +43%.",
  "fair_odds": "22.42",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1492416,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "Serie A",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.3041,
      "match": "Gremio v Cruzeiro",
      "odds": "3.10",
      "probability": 0.3564,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1520937,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "Serie B",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.2846,
      "match": "São Bernardo v Criciuma",
      "odds": "3.22",
      "probability": 0.357,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1492418,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T22:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "Serie A",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.2934,
      "match": "Remo v RB Bragantino",
      "odds": "3.21",
      "probability": 0.3505,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "upset"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 1313,
  "slate": "2026-10-18",
  "slip": 62,
  "stake_units": 0.17,
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "longshot",
  "variant_name": "Long shot",
  "version": 10,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v9:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: São Bernardo 3-4-3, Criciuma 4-4-2.\nCombined odds 32.04 → 32.04; chance 4.33% → 4.46%; EV +39% → +43%."
}