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Entry #1340: pick published

Hash verified

São Bernardo v Criciuma: Home win 36% @ 3.22 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T18:41:14.687895+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: cd7392517bb0a0b90ccf20e204df19f90a7520dcd59ac45f7ef57fc442ec3ed7
Stored hash: e3fc96d1e75c664dfd931fa3ea8e7dfd92e9f68d506edf4d833a9a5a93966816
Recomputed: e3fc96d1e75c664dfd931fa3ea8e7dfd92e9f68d506edf4d833a9a5a93966816

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Criciuma",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0724,
  "explanation": "Home win: 36% against a market price of 28% (+7.2%).\nExpected goals São Bernardo 1.19 – 0.80 Criciuma.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 45% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 45% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 4.8 pts to home win.\nCriciuma's defence (0.87× the league rate against) takes 2.3 pts from home win.\nSão Bernardo's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nRest days (São Bernardo 7, Criciuma 6) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 7.2% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: São Bernardo 3-4-3, Criciuma 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 36% (+1.0 pts); Draw 30% → 31% (+0.7 pts); Away win 35% → 34% (-1.8 pts).",
  "fixture": 1520937,
  "home": "São Bernardo",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 72,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.2846,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-72-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "3.22",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.357,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 7.2% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: São Bernardo 3-4-3, Criciuma 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 35% → 36% (+1.0 pts); Draw 30% → 31% (+0.7 pts); Away win 35% → 34% (-1.8 pts)."
}

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