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Entry #1339: pick published

Hash verified

CRB v Botafogo SP: Home win 59% @ 1.56 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T18:41:11.913586+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: fbde87208647102028fd61ab34a0b5bf3b12afd44d8a8d21169e9486f05066af
Stored hash: cd7392517bb0a0b90ccf20e204df19f90a7520dcd59ac45f7ef57fc442ec3ed7
Recomputed: cd7392517bb0a0b90ccf20e204df19f90a7520dcd59ac45f7ef57fc442ec3ed7

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Botafogo SP",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0223,
  "explanation": "Home win: 59% against a market price of 61% (-2.2%).\nExpected goals CRB 1.65 – 0.92 Botafogo SP.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 55% (uncertainty ±6.2%), so it carries 37% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 4.4 pts to home win.\nCRB's attack (1.09× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nCRB missing 1.2 regular starters; Botafogo SP missing 2.8 regular starters adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nBotafogo SP's defence (1.06× the league rate against) adds 1.0 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.2%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: CRB 4-1-4-1, Botafogo SP 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 57% → 59% (+2.0 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-0.7 pts); Away win 19% → 18% (-1.3 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid.",
  "fixture": 1520932,
  "home": "CRB",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 72,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6088,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-72-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.56",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.5865,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.2%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: CRB 4-1-4-1, Botafogo SP 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 57% → 59% (+2.0 pts); Draw 24% → 23% (-0.7 pts); Away win 19% → 18% (-1.3 pts).\nPick changed from Away win to Home win.\nTag changed from Upset Watch to Avoid."
}

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