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Entry #1338: pick published

Hash verified

Avai v Athletic Club: Home win 43% @ 2.24 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T18:41:10.610468+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: f037825e175337bade1a49fb7de056ad7f2872e39cfde1dec55982fbfc034f62
Stored hash: fbde87208647102028fd61ab34a0b5bf3b12afd44d8a8d21169e9486f05066af
Recomputed: fbde87208647102028fd61ab34a0b5bf3b12afd44d8a8d21169e9486f05066af

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Athletic Club",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0072,
  "explanation": "Home win: 43% against a market price of 42% (+0.7%).\nExpected goals Avai 1.37 – 1.09 Athletic Club.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 44% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 42% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+38% goals at home) adds 4.4 pts to home win.\nAthletic Club's defence (1.07× the league rate against) adds 1.1 pts to home win.\nRest days (Avai 7, Athletic Club 5) takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.7%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Avai 4-2-3-1, Athletic Club 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 44% → 43% (-1.0 pts); Away win 27% → 28% (+1.2 pts).",
  "fixture": 1520930,
  "home": "Avai",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Serie B",
  "league_api_id": 72,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4191,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-72-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.24",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.4263,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.7%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Avai 4-2-3-1, Athletic Club 4-1-4-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 44% → 43% (-1.0 pts); Away win 27% → 28% (+1.2 pts)."
}

#1337 #1339

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