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{
  "combined_odds": "9.79",
  "combined_probability": 0.110582,
  "ev": 0.0831,
  "explanation": "Balanced slip for Sun 18 Oct 2026: 3 legs, one per match.\nBookmaker pays 9.79. By our numbers the fair price is 9.04, so we rate the chance that every leg wins at 11.06% (about 1 in 9.0; likely range 10.32%–11.85%). The market's own prices imply 8.47%.\nChance that at least 2 of the 3 legs win: 47.2%.\nExpected value at the quoted price: +8% per unit staked. If every leg were 2 points less likely than we think, it would be -5%. Margin of safety: each leg's probability can be overstated by up to 1.3 points before this slip stops being a value bet.\nSuggested stake: 0.12 units (0.125 Kelly, capped; 1 unit = 1% of your bankroll).\n\nWhy these legs:\n1. Fluminense v Santos: Home win @ 2.37 — our 45% vs the market's 40% (+4.8%), EV +7%. Value: our 45% beats the market's 40%.\n2. Bahia v Flamengo: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.21 — our 45% vs the market's 42% (+3.1%), EV +0%. Value: our 45% beats the market's 42%.\n3. Llaneros v Santa Fe: Under 9.5 corners @ 1.87 — our 54% vs the market's 50% (+4.3%), EV +1%. Value: our 54% beats the market's 50%.\n\nHow it was built: only legs tagged Banker/Value/Upset Watch whose probability beats the QUOTED price (bookmaker margin included) by at least 2% over the de-vigged market; one leg per match, because two legs on the same match are correlated; at most 4 legs per league; legs chosen to maximise a balance of chance and expected value.\nHonest note: a 3-leg slip loses far more often than it wins. Expect it to land about 1 in 9.0; its value is long-run, across many slips, not this one. Matches are treated as independent; if any leg's team news, price or tag changes before the first kickoff, the slip is rebuilt and the change is shown here.\n\nWhat changed since v15:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gremio 4-3-3, Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1.\nRemoved: Gremio v Cruzeiro Under 2.5 goals — our pick changed to over.\nAdded: Bahia v Flamengo Under 2.5 goals @ 2.21 (Value).\nCombined odds 9.00 → 9.79; chance 12.04% → 11.06%; EV +8% → +8%.",
  "fair_odds": "9.04",
  "legs": [
    {
      "fixture": 1492415,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
      "league": "Serie A",
      "market": "1X2",
      "market_probability": 0.4016,
      "match": "Fluminense v Santos",
      "odds": "2.37",
      "probability": 0.4495,
      "selection": "home",
      "tag": "value"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1492412,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T21:30:00+00:00",
      "league": "Serie A",
      "market": "OU25",
      "market_probability": 0.4232,
      "match": "Bahia v Flamengo",
      "odds": "2.21",
      "probability": 0.4542,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "value"
    },
    {
      "fixture": 1549830,
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T23:05:00+00:00",
      "league": "Primera A",
      "market": "COR9.5",
      "market_probability": 0.4986,
      "match": "Llaneros v Santa Fe",
      "odds": "1.87",
      "probability": 0.5417,
      "selection": "under",
      "tag": "value"
    }
  ],
  "replaces_seq": 1336,
  "slate": "2026-10-18",
  "slip": 61,
  "stake_units": 0.12,
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "slip",
  "variant": "balanced",
  "variant_name": "Balanced",
  "version": 16,
  "what_changed": "What changed since v15:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Gremio 4-3-3, Cruzeiro 4-2-3-1.\nRemoved: Gremio v Cruzeiro Under 2.5 goals — our pick changed to over.\nAdded: Bahia v Flamengo Under 2.5 goals @ 2.21 (Value).\nCombined odds 9.00 → 9.79; chance 12.04% → 11.06%; EV +8% → +8%."
}