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Entry #1342: pick published

Hash verified

Burgos v Sabadell: Home win 36% @ 2.86 (Upset Watch)

Written: 2026-10-18T18:41:18.138539+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 03fb78a548a99c938bf735e1f5b92e7b62f1a000debd8f8d9971be829d8ea265
Stored hash: 5ac703c115b3ae33ee65df50fa37cd222153f8bd0ea73661f7a9e764cf78a4e1
Recomputed: 5ac703c115b3ae33ee65df50fa37cd222153f8bd0ea73661f7a9e764cf78a4e1

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Sabadell",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0312,
  "explanation": "Home win: 36% against a market price of 33% (+3.1%).\nExpected goals Burgos 1.30 – 1.09 Sabadell.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 41% (uncertainty ±6.5%), so it carries 38% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 3.2 pts to home win.\nBurgos's defence (0.87× the league rate against) adds 1.4 pts to home win.\nBurgos's attack (0.92× the league rate) takes 1.1 pts from home win.\nBurgos missing 4.1 regular starters; Sabadell missing 1.8 regular starters takes 1.0 pts from home win.\nTagged Upset Watch: underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market.\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Burgos 4-4-2, Sabadell 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 36% (-0.7 pts); Draw 32% → 31% (-0.9 pts); Away win 32% → 33% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 33% → 33%.",
  "fixture": 1569970,
  "home": "Burgos",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.3279,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "2.86",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.3591,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "upset",
  "tag_reason": "underdog priced 3.1% too long by the market",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Burgos 4-4-2, Sabadell 4-4-2.\nOur probabilities: Home win 37% → 36% (-0.7 pts); Draw 32% → 31% (-0.9 pts); Away win 32% → 33% (+1.6 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 33% → 33%."
}

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