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Entry #1343: pick published

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Nacional Potosí v Bolívar: Away win 56% @ 1.67 (Avoid)

Written: 2026-10-18T18:41:21.335461+00:00 (UTC, exactly as hashed)
Previous hash: 5ac703c115b3ae33ee65df50fa37cd222153f8bd0ea73661f7a9e764cf78a4e1
Stored hash: 9ca928160bffdef9b6b297a85c4047ebb77f6023a78f531158480379a694b09f
Recomputed: 9ca928160bffdef9b6b297a85c4047ebb77f6023a78f531158480379a694b09f

Content, exactly as hashed

{
  "away": "Bolívar",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": 0.0003,
  "explanation": "Away win: 56% against a market price of 56% (+0.0%).\nExpected goals Nacional Potosí 1.07 – 1.93 Bolívar.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±6.7%), so it carries 27% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nBolívar's attack (1.51× the league rate) adds 4.4 pts to away win.\nHome advantage in this league (+58% goals at home) takes 2.6 pts from away win.\nNacional Potosí missing 4.7 regular starters adds 2.5 pts to away win.\nBolívar's defence (0.76× the league rate against) adds 2.0 pts to away win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (+0.0%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Nacional Potosí 4-4-2, Bolívar.\nOur probabilities: Home win 24% → 21% (-3.3 pts); Away win 52% → 56% (+3.4 pts).",
  "fixture": 1619333,
  "home": "Nacional Potosí",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T19:00:00+00:00",
  "league": "Primera División",
  "league_api_id": 344,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5581,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-344-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.67",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.5584,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "away",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (+0.0%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Nacional Potosí 4-4-2, Bolívar.\nOur probabilities: Home win 24% → 21% (-3.3 pts); Away win 52% → 56% (+3.4 pts)."
}

#1342 #1344

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