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{
  "away": "FC Andorra",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0064,
  "explanation": "Home win: 54% against a market price of 54% (-0.6%).\nExpected goals Girona 1.65 – 1.01 FC Andorra.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 52% (uncertainty ±7.2%), so it carries 23% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 2.2 pts to home win.\nGirona missing 1.3 regular starters; FC Andorra missing 2.5 regular starters adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nGirona's attack (1.06× the league rate) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nFC Andorra's attack (1.08× the league rate) takes 0.4 pts from home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.6%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Girona 4-4-2, FC Andorra 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 54% (+2.5 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (-0.7 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.8 pts).",
  "fixture": 1569975,
  "home": "Girona",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5431,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.76",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5367,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.6%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Girona 4-4-2, FC Andorra 3-4-3.\nOur probabilities: Home win 51% → 54% (+2.5 pts); Draw 25% → 25% (-0.7 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-1.8 pts)."
}