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{
  "away": "Havelse",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0033,
  "explanation": "Home win: 57% against a market price of 57% (-0.3%).\nExpected goals SV Meppen 2.36 – 1.55 Havelse.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 28% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHavelse's defence (1.26× the league rate against) adds 3.0 pts to home win.\nHome advantage in this league (+16% goals at home) adds 1.9 pts to home win.\nRest days (SV Meppen 5, Havelse 5) adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nSV Meppen missing 3.1 regular starters; Havelse missing 2.6 regular starters adds 0.6 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.3%).\nWhat changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: SV Meppen 4-2-3-1, Havelse.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 57% (+1.7 pts); Draw 22% → 21% (-1.1 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-0.6 pts).",
  "fixture": 1584041,
  "home": "SV Meppen",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "3. Liga",
  "league_api_id": 80,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.5684,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-80-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.63",
  "prediction_version": 2,
  "probability": 0.5651,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.3%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v1:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: SV Meppen 4-2-3-1, Havelse.\nOur probabilities: Home win 55% → 57% (+1.7 pts); Draw 22% → 21% (-1.1 pts); Away win 23% → 22% (-0.6 pts)."
}