Check any pick we ever made

{
  "away": "Eldense",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0041,
  "explanation": "Home win: 49% against a market price of 50% (-0.4%).\nExpected goals Valladolid 1.59 – 1.13 Eldense.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 48% (uncertainty ±7.5%), so it carries 25% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+28% goals at home) adds 2.3 pts to home win.\nRest days (Valladolid 6, Eldense 8) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nValladolid's attack (0.94× the league rate) takes 0.5 pts from home win.\nEldense's attack (0.94× the league rate) adds 0.3 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-0.4%).\nWhat changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Valladolid 4-1-3-2, Eldense 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 49% (+1.8 pts); Draw 28% → 27% (-1.2 pts); Away win 25% → 24% (-0.6 pts).",
  "fixture": 1569980,
  "home": "Valladolid",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T16:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Segunda División",
  "league_api_id": 141,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.4963,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-141-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.92",
  "prediction_version": 4,
  "probability": 0.4922,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-0.4%)",
  "trigger": "event: lineups",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v3:\nTriggered by Confirmed lineups released: Valladolid 4-1-3-2, Eldense 4-2-3-1.\nOur probabilities: Home win 47% → 49% (+1.8 pts); Draw 28% → 27% (-1.2 pts); Away win 25% → 24% (-0.6 pts)."
}