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{
  "away": "SCR Altach",
  "bookmakers": 6,
  "edge": -0.0259,
  "explanation": "Home win: 66% against a market price of 68% (-2.6%).\nExpected goals Red Bull Salzburg 1.85 – 1.01 SCR Altach.\nSimulated 10,000 times, the model alone says 56% (uncertainty ±7.8%), so it carries 22% of the weight and the de-vigged market price carries the rest.\nHome advantage in this league (+25% goals at home) adds 2.0 pts to home win.\nRed Bull Salzburg's attack (1.16× the league rate) adds 1.3 pts to home win.\nRest days (Red Bull Salzburg 3, SCR Altach 7) adds 0.9 pts to home win.\nSCR Altach's attack (0.88× the league rate) adds 0.7 pts to home win.\nTagged Avoid: no edge over the market price (-2.6%).\nWhat changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 67% → 66% (-1.1 pts); Away win 14% → 14% (+0.7 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 70% → 68%; Draw 18% → 19%; Away win 12% → 13%.",
  "fixture": 1561944,
  "home": "Red Bull Salzburg",
  "kickoff": "2026-10-18T12:30:00+00:00",
  "league": "Bundesliga",
  "league_api_id": 218,
  "market": "1X2",
  "market_probability": 0.6824,
  "model": "unified-sim v1 (sim-218-v5)",
  "odds_taken": "1.41",
  "prediction_version": 3,
  "probability": 0.6565,
  "season": 2026,
  "selection": "home",
  "tag": "avoid",
  "tag_reason": "no edge over the market price (-2.6%)",
  "trigger": "scheduled",
  "type": "pick",
  "what_changed": "What changed since v2:\nOur probabilities: Home win 67% → 66% (-1.1 pts); Away win 14% → 14% (+0.7 pts).\nMarket (de-vigged): Home win 70% → 68%; Draw 18% → 19%; Away win 12% → 13%."
}